TEHRAN - European tourists are increasingly choosing destinations closer to home as conflict in West Asia raises security concerns and drives up the cost of long-haul travel, affecting tourism flows across parts of Asia and the Middle East while benefiting southern European countries, industry officials and analysts said.

The outbreak of unrest at the end of February has led to a sharp decline in visitor numbers across several Middle Eastern destinations, according to tourism operators and official data, ISNA reported. 

At Jordan’s ancient city of Petra, foreign visitors are facing noticeably shorter queues as international arrivals decline amid regional instability.

In Tunisia, hoteliers also reported a slower-than-usual start to the summer tourism season.

“Normally we would receive around 100 new reservations a day, but now we are only getting about 50,” Anouar Kamoun, manager of the Royal Garden Palace hotel on the Tunisian island of Djerba, told AFP.

Disruptions at airports and airspace restrictions in Persian Gulf countries, combined with higher airfares caused by rising fuel prices, have also discouraged many Europeans from traveling to long-haul destinations in Southeast Asia.

According to Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism, the country recorded a sharp drop in European arrivals in April, with the number of German tourists declining by 29% and Italian visitors falling by 44% compared with previous periods.

Germany-based TUI Group, the world’s largest tour operator, last month lowered its profit forecast and warned of “traveler caution” linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Tourism industry groups say Europe is expected to benefit from the shift in travel patterns as travelers increasingly favor destinations perceived as safer and more accessible.

The World Travel & Tourism Council said international visitor spending across Europe is expected to rise by 7.1% this year, outpacing global averages, as geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions elsewhere encourage travelers to remain closer to home.

Countries in southern Europe, particularly Italy and Spain, are forecast to gain the most from the change, according to reports cited by Economic Times.

Rafael Pampillón Olmedo, a professor at a Spanish business school, said the conflict was reshaping international tourism flows.

The war is disrupting global tourism patterns and redirecting part of demand toward destinations perceived as safer, he said.

He added that many European travelers hesitant about visiting the Middle East, the eastern Mediterranean — including Turkey, Greece and Egypt — or destinations near the Gulf region were instead turning to Spain and Portugal.

Pedro Aznar, an economist at Spanish business school ESADE, said Spain was benefiting from what he described as a “substitution effect.”

“The conflict could lead some families to change their holiday destination or reduce spending in other areas,” he said.

North African destinations that are geographically closer to Europe are also seeing gains from the changing travel landscape.

Zakaria Melliani, operations manager at Belima residences in Rabat, said demand had increased earlier than usual this year.

“Normally the tourism season here starts in mid-May, but this year it began immediately after Ramadan,” Melliani said. “Travelers who had planned holidays in the Gulf and Asia chose Morocco instead.”

Fatim-Zahra Ammor said Morocco’s tourism sector had so far performed in line with government expectations despite geopolitical uncertainty.

“By the end of April 2026, tourism growth had reached around 5%,” Ammor said in a statement to AFP.

Industry analysts said the latest shift in tourism demand highlighted the sensitivity of global travel patterns to geopolitical instability, airline disruptions and rising transportation costs, particularly among European travelers seeking shorter and more predictable journeys.
AM